Bulls in bitcoin prepare for widespread volatility as the price of the cryptocurrency drops from recent all-time highs to $12,000.
On March 20, Bitcoin looked set to test $61,000 once more, with analysis indicating that support would “crack.”
Another night of BTC price losses was monitored by data from Markets Pro and TradingView; on Bitstamp, these losses have so far peaked at $60,760.
Currently down 17.5% from its peak, selling pressure on BTC/USD persisted due to multiple significant obstacles.
These include withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement from March 20, as Cointelegraph reported.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision is almost certain, but risk assets should closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent remarks.
Part of a recent analysis on X (previously Twitter) by trading site The Kobeissi Letter stated, “With the Fed meeting less than 24 hours away, it’s unlikely the Fed changes rates tomorrow.”
But with the current developments, all eyes will be on direction. We continue to believe that it would be premature to change course.
According to the most recent projections from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is just a 1% likelihood of a “pivot,” or a return to rate decreases, for the FOMC meeting in May and a 9.1% chance for March 20.
The Fed event in June has far greater probability (55%).
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Meanwhile, data from UK-based investment firm Farside shows that net outflows from spot ETFs occurred for a second day in a row.
Although the withdrawal from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was less than the record $642 million that occurred on March 19, the data were unimpressive due to the poor inflows to the other ETF products.
Financial analyst Tedtalksmacro retorted, “Nearly $500M USD has flowed out of spot BTC ETFs in the past two trading days.”
Potential causes of the slowdown include traders taking a wait and see attitude prior to FOMC (or simply exiting the market) and the US tax season. After some cuts, regular programming will resume.
Nevertheless, trading company QCP Capital cautioned that the second net outflow day might have major ramifications for the strength of the Bitcoin price in its daily bulletin, “Asia Morning Colour,” which it sent to users of the Telegram channel.
“Overnight, Grayscale experienced somewhat smaller outflows of -$443.5m, but will inflows from the other ETFs result in a net positive figure today?” It asked.
“There’s a good chance that support will break with another net negative number.”
The prospect of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) experiencing a recovery prompts cautious optimism among analysts, tempered by an expectation of volatility in the interim.
A leading analyst suggests that before any significant rebound, investors should anticipate “some chop first.”
This assessment reflects the inherent unpredictability within the cryptocurrency market, characterized by rapid price fluctuations and sentiment shifts.
While the idea of a Bitcoin ETF gaining traction continues to captivate investors and enthusiasts alike, the path to recovery may be strewn with obstacles, including regulatory scrutiny, market sentiment, and broader economic factors.
The analyst’s cautious outlook underscores the need for investors to exercise patience and resilience in navigating the current landscape.
Despite the setbacks, the potential benefits of a Bitcoin ETF are compelling, offering institutional and retail investors alike a regulated vehicle for exposure to the digital asset.
However, the road to approval and subsequent market acceptance may be fraught with uncertainty, requiring a measured approach and realistic expectations.
As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable, recognizing that volatility and choppy waters may precede any sustained recovery in the Bitcoin ETF space.
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