The state of bitcoin in 2024 appears to be progressively different from prior cycles, as sellers consistently are unable to bring the price down following fresh all-time highs.
According to recent research, bitcoin sellers have not been able to initiate a traditional bull market correction this cycle.
The pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, Checkmate, posted on X (previously Twitter) on April 5th, showing that BTC price drawdowns had only just reached 20%.
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Even while Bitcoin has pulled down from fresh all-time highs above $74,000, the latest declines have been small in percentage terms.
Checkmate demonstrates this, making it even more evident when they are contrasted with previous bull markets.
He highlighted the fact that sellers had, at most, brought the market down 20% despite widespread profit-taking and irrational selling at the highs by uploading data from his charting suite, Checkonchain.
Only once, in the middle of September of last year, did that happen, and the subsequent drawdowns never exceeded 15.8%.
Checkmate remarked, “This Bitcoin chart is still my favourite of this cycle.”
“The bears are still unable to pull back 20% of the market, despite the market absorbing hundred million dollar sell-side days.”
In comparison, there were two pullbacks of more than 50% during the preceding bull market cycle, which ran from 2019 to the end of 2021, with the COVID-19 outlier from March 2020 reaching 61.4%.
Even yet, Checkmate conceded, discussing the numbers, that statistics favoured history.
He added, “The insight is more about being amazed that we haven’t already, than it is about whether we will get one.”
The characteristics of the bitcoin industry have evolved dramatically in 2024.
The most significant of them is the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which have bought over 500,000 BTC since their start in January.
This buy-side support is bolstering positive views for a return to price discovery, along with other occurrences like multi-year lows in exchanges’ BTC balances.
Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas warned spectators not to get too excited about the ETFs’ record-breaking performance this week.
In a portion of an X post, he said, “The inflows have been that epic, and without the ETFs, bitcoin is prob at like $30k, so look at big picture.”
Balchunas stated that net withdrawals from ETF products would occur on a daily basis and that this was typical investor behaviour.
“Off the table” refers to the concept of Bitcoin that is held in long-term storage and isn’t actively traded or available for circulation in the market.
Estimates suggest that around half a billion Bitcoins fall into this category, representing a significant portion of the total Bitcoin supply.
These Bitcoins are held by long-term investors, commonly referred to as “HODLers,” who have strong conviction in the future potential of Bitcoin and are willing to hold onto their investments for extended periods.
This substantial amount of Bitcoin being “off the table” contributes to the scarcity of the cryptocurrency, as it reduces the available supply for trading, potentially exerting upward pressure on its price over time.
The phenomenon of a large portion of Bitcoin being “off the table” underscores the unique characteristics of the cryptocurrency market.
Unlike traditional financial assets, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature allows individuals to exert control over their holdings without relying on intermediaries such as banks or financial institutions.
This feature empowers investors to make independent decisions regarding the management and storage of their Bitcoin, leading to diverse strategies such as long-term holding.
As Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream acceptance and adoption, the significance of the Bitcoin held “off the table” is likely to play a crucial role in shaping its price dynamics and overall market dynamics in the years to come.
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