Creating a roadmap to reach $80K: 5 things to be aware of in Bitcoin this week

Written by Rock Buivy

Post Date: 9 Apr, 24

Bitcoin price rises ahead of Wall Street start as the CPI week seems to be a prelude to the impending halving of the cryptocurrency.

With a jump beyond $70,000, bitcoin begins the second week of April in traditional bull market fashion.

The biggest cryptocurrency is taking advantage of its gains to get closer to all-time highs after spending the weekend steadily rising in value.

Traders are already anticipating more higher ahead of the first Wall Street open; can the momentum in the price of bitcoin continue?

This week’s déjà vu feeling in cryptocurrency is undoubtedly the consequence of pent-up optimism after several weeks of corrective swings.

Nonetheless, volatility – both up and down – may very well persist. In only ten days, Bitcoin will experience its next block subsidy halving, and miners are gearing up to see a 50% overnight decline in block reward.

Thus, network fundamentals are crucial to monitor going forward, since difficulty is expected to reach new all-time highs this week.

Macroeconomic sentiment is chilly elsewhere as markets calculate the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve would quickly lower interest rates.

In its weekly summary of the most important BTC price concerns to watch in the next few days, Cointelegraph looks at these problems and more.

Bitcoin hits $72,000 at the start of the week

With the goal of regaining the last ground lost below all – time highs this week, Bitcoin is not wasting any time.

The weekly closing, which was approximately $69,000, came after an unusual weekend in which institutional players were not present yet BTC/USD gradually increased.

The main shift, however, happened later, during the Asia trading session, when there was an abrupt spike in the price upwards; at of this writing, Bitstamp showed a peak of $72,573.

According to information from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro, Bitcoin has already increased by 2.5% on the day.

In a post on X, financial analyst Tedtalksmacro summed up, “Spot BTC buyers are hungry.”

Spot buyers were driving derivatives higher on the accompanying chart.

For a number of prominent market commentators, these spot flows are critical to the maintenance of bullish momentum.

$70,000 for well-known trader Skew depended on sustained interest.

He made the following observation on a chart displaying the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator: “Volatility remains moderate into HTF picture meaning price swings of $2K are to be expected.”

Moving into band squeeze zone in the event that prices continue to decline until late Monday. For the price to stay over $70K, at least temporarily, we still need to witness rising buy volume and spot flows this week.

Some that day perceived the possibility of a new retreat.

A “very obvious” pennant structure that is currently in position on daily timeframes, according to fellow trader Crypto Ed, may provide a return to $68,000 before new highs.

“Be ready for a move towards $80,000 if we do see that pullback and print another higher low,” he said to X followers.

Two adjacent “gaps” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market were also seen; they both emerged as the price moved over the weekend and are currently trading between $64,000 and $68,500.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades cautioned accompanying an illustrated chart, saying, “They tend to become kind of self fulfilling prophecies if enough people are watching them and act on it which makes price close the gaps.”

“The price usually loses most of its value the moment it trades further away and people stop caring.”

PPI and CPI due in a crucial inflation indicator

There will be more significant macroeconomic data in the US this week, which could support the Fed’s position on rate decreases.

The March Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints will be released in the next days, however most Bitcoin enthusiasts are still preoccupied with the halving.

The story of inflation in the United States now diverges from indications coming out of Europe.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated in speeches that officials are comfortable with a data-driven strategy for rate reductions, noting that the economy can sustain the effects of tighter policy while inflation is gradually declining.

As a result, market expectations for when these would start to close to the year’s end have been pushed back.

This week, the trading resource said, “it’s all about inflation data and the Fed’s next steps.” A portion of The Kobeissi Letter’s weekly journal was written on X.

According to the most recent projections from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is less than a 50% chance of a 0.25% cut in either June or July.

Nonetheless, there is a growing trend in Europe and the UK to lower rates earlier.

In March, Bank of England head Andrew Bailey stated, “Though we are not yet at the point where we can cut interest rates, things are moving in the right direction.”

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Bitcoin miners prepare for volatility in costs

It’s Bitcoin halving season, and miners’ plans are getting more and more attention.

Less than two weeks remain until 3.125 BTC, or 50% less “new” Bitcoin is unlocked for each mined block.

After miners increased their selling in 2024, economists now predict an adjustment period.

The CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, disclosed this week that “Bitcoin mining costs are set to double by the end of the month after the halving, jumping from $40K to $80K for S19 XPs, commonly utilised by US miners.”

Although mining costs have already doubled from 2020, according to Ki, the impact on miners’ bottom lines has been lessened by increases in Bitcoin prices.

“Mining costs doubled since the May 2020 halving, but a parabolic bull run ensued, covering these costs and achieving profitability,” he continued.

It could therefore be detrimental to smaller players with less wiggle room to adjust to shifting market conditions if there is no more upside presently.

Some consider the introduction of Bitcoin Ordinals and rising fees as the reasons for maintaining income flows following the halving.

As stated in an interview last week, Laurent Benayoun, the CEO of cryptocurrency consultant and market maker Acheron Trading, “it’s not obvious that miners would be worse off after the halving, quite the opposite.”

Hash rate preparation and BTC mining difficulty reach new heights

As a result, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network appear stronger than ever as we approach the halving.

On April 11, mining difficulty – which is currently almost at an all-time high – is predicted to rise by roughly 2% in order to surpass 85 trillion for the first time.

Data from the tracking website BTC.com also reveals that difficulty eventually dropped by less than 1%, despite over a month of consolidating BTC price activity.

A comparable narrative is given by the mining hash rate. According to raw statistics from MiningPoolStats, 684 exahashes per second (EH/s) of processing power are now deployed to the network.

Numbers indicate that output from known mining pools is almost at an all – time high.

The halving has been prepared for by a number of sources. One of these was a statement made by Bitdeer Technologies, the Kingdom of Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining partner, indicating that they intended to increase mining output sixfold before to the event.

The “diamond hands” of Bitcoin are still being sold

Long-term holders (LTHs) of bitcoin have been selling more and more at the present price.

When the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of LTHs shifts more in their favour, older coins are also being moved on-chain.

However, according to Checkmate, a primary on-chain analyst at the cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode, this is rather typical and shouldn’t cause sell-side pressure to overwhelm the market.

With reference to the most recent plunge to $73,800, he said, “This Bitcoin ATH break looks like just about every previous ATH break.”

Long-Term Holders begin spending their coins, utilising the fresh liquidity and demand that is coming in. Well-educated individuals who purchase low and sell high.

An accompanying chart looked at the spending patterns over time of different currency cohorts based on data from his own statistics tool, Checkonchain.

Checkmate contended that history is only repeating itself thus far. In bull markets, LTH organisations typically release 14% of the total amount of Bitcoin under their control; thus far, less than half of this has left their wallets.

He stated, “In the previous two cycles, new demand for Bitcoin was able to push prices multiples higher and absorb this LTH sell-side for about 6-8 months.”

Assuming a normal LTH Supply drawdown of -14%, we’ve completed this process about 40% of the way (roughly speaking).

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