Is there a price for the Bitcoin halving? Analysts contrast projected BTC prices with past halvings


The halving of Bitcoin is in 30 days. Is the event already priced in for investors, or should they be anticipating a new all-time high?

Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs in 2024 mostly due to institutional investors’ strong desire for purchasing the new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Bitcoin’s history of exceptional outperformance around the supply-halving event.

Previous studies have linked the halving of Bitcoin to bull markets, with the price showing a parabolic ascent and peaking in the months after the occurrence.

Every four years, there is a 50% reduction in miner block rewards due to halvings. About 30 days remain until the second halving, which will lower block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Bitcoin halving countdown.
Bitcoin halving countdown

Previous Bitcoin halvings’ effects on the price of BTC

In the past, halving events have been connected to Bitcoin price bull runs. Prior instances of exponential price increase and optimistic market sentiment have been linked to expectations of declining supply and increasing demand.

Three Bitcoin halvings have occurred in the past, and the market has noticed a pattern: one month before to each halves, the price of BTC was lower than it was at the time of the halving (see table below).

According to the table above, on November 28, 2012, when the first halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $12.

After a year, in November 2013, the price of Bitcoin reached a height of $1,242, which was more than 10,000% more than its value during the halving.

After the second halving on July 9, 2016, the price of Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high of over $19,785 by December 2017. Bitcoin’s price was $8,730 on May 11, 2020, the day of the third halving. By November 2021, it had reached an all-time high of around $69,000.

Since there is less Bitcoin available for purchase on the open market, its price will typically increase as long as demand remains constant or increases.

This is because a reduced rate of supply emphasises how unique Bitcoin is, which might increase demand and drive up the price of the cryptocurrency.

The halving event also draws new investors to the cryptocurrency industry and boosts trader activity.

Analysts predict a halving of the price of bitcoin

Rekt Capital, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, examined the “5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving,” using past pricing data to predict what will occur in the days leading up to and following the impending Bitcoin halves event.

Prehalving, prehalving rally, prehalving retrace, reaccumulation, and the “parabolic uptrend,” which is the last phase in which the price of bitcoin rises exponentially and reaches new all-time highs, are among the phases.

Although past price movement might not recur, investors might decide to boost capital flows into the asset due to the expectation of a bull market.

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Predictions for Bitcoin’s price after halving

The price of bitcoin may be headed towards the coveted $100,000 threshold, especially after rising over its all-time high in 2021 prior to the split.

Certain analysts have set even higher price estimates, but others think the halving has already been factored in.

According to analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, the enormous demand for Bitcoin ETFs in the US will help drive the price of the cryptocurrency to its current top of over $69,000.

The researchers stated in a market research analysis that:

In terms of the entire market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, “our analysis forecasts a conservative price objective of $100,000-$120,000 to be achieved by Q4 2024, and the cycle peak to be achieved sometime in 2025.

Although the price of Bitcoin usually reaches new heights a few months following the four-year cycle halving event, this year’s price activity seems to be unfolding in a different way.

On March 5, Bitcoin broke over its previous all-time high, setting a string of new records that culminated on March 15 at $73,835.

Based on this performance, Peter Brandt offered his predictions for when Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs in an article on X that was published on March 6. By Q4 2025, Brant predicted, the major cryptocurrency would hit $150,000 in price.

Bitcoin sharp shake-out decline
Bitcoin sharp shake-out decline

Brandt said:

“The high in October 2025 might reach approximately $150,000 if the bull trend after April 2024 continues at the same rate as it has since the low in November 2022. But in past bull cycles, the post-halving advances have been significantly steeper than the pre-halving advances.

PlanB, a pseudonymous quantitative analyst, claims that the bull market started on March 1 following the conclusion of an accumulation phase. Plan B posted the chart below on X, stating:

“The bull market has begun.” History suggests that we should expect approximately ten months of heart-stopping FOMO: sharp price increases interspersed with several -30% decreases.

Deribit and GenesisVol, who predict a possible increase in price of up to 20.8% for Bitcoin before a halving to a range between $70,000 and $80,000, were also bullish on the cryptocurrency.

In addition to market analysts’ observations, specialists in Bitcoin mining offer a bullish prediction for the currency’s value following the halving.

Due to a supply shock and a slower pace of inflation, Andy Fajar Handika, co-founder and CEO of the decentralised Bitcoin mining pool Loka Mining, predicts short-term volatility that is comparable to previous halvings.

Fajar stated:

Scarcity narratives will become more prevalent this year, thanks to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the popularity of meta-protocols like Ordinals.
launch of Bitcoin ETFs
launch of Bitcoin ETFs

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Written by
Rock Buivy
Over the years, I've dedicated countless hours to researching and analyzing various crypto betting platforms, understanding their features, strengths, and weaknesses. This knowledge has allowed me to produce in-depth, well-rounded reviews that help users make informed decisions when it comes to choosing the right platform for their needs.