As hope increases for a return to BTC price discovery, Bitcoin breaks several records at the conclusion of Q1.
With multiple new highs, Bitcoin begins the next week, month, and quarter of 2024. Will the bull market endure from here?
On March 31, the first quarter of 2024 concluded with the highest close in Bitcoin price ever.
The old resistance is not going away without a fight, but buyers and sellers are fighting to preserve the old all-time highs from 2021 firmly in place.
Therefore, price discovery is still difficult to achieve; for the majority of latecomer sell-side liquidity to be eliminated, Bitcoin has to surge beyond $74,000.
As Q2 begins, the stage is set for potentially dramatic developments.
The traditional macroeconomic data component is added to the mix by the United States’ nonfarm payrolls, which are due at the end of the week.
Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, will make some new remarks before this.
The week prior, Bitcoin seemed to react favourably to Powell, who continued to emphasise the possibility of interest rate reductions in 2024.
As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, experienced investors are beginning to benefit more and more, defying the inflow of institutional money from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Experts examines these and other concerns in their weekly assessment of the events that are likely to affect the movement of the price of bitcoin in the upcoming days.
By the conclusion of Q1, Bitcoin had essentially delivered for bulls.
The weekly, monthly, and quarterly close on March 31 reached a record high of slightly under $70,300.
There was a foreseeable decline, but TradingView data indicated that local lows of $68,900 were reached many hours later.
Thus, BTC/USD stays trapped in a range that was already known since last month on short timeframes. Its previous all-time high of $69,000 from 2021 remains a key level of attention for the market.
Skew, a well-known trader, should exercise cautious until more certain trend signals are received.
In one of his most recent posts on X, he stated, “Going to be more observant here before jumping into positions.”
“The 4H trend is still in place as of right now. We’ll be watching for the market to keep this up with enough spot buying and perp bid for momentum.”
The first Wall Street open, which marked the restoration of ETF flows, was also marked as noteworthy by Skew.
Regarding longer timeframes, he affirmed, “The biggest HTF level right now is $69K,” providing an example figure.
“Weekly/monthly open will be significant later.”
Rekt Capital, a well-known trader and analyst, was more optimistic on the candle closes.
He contended that before utilising this as a foundation for further upward, Bitcoin may readily test the upper end of its range to establish it as longer-term support.
The breakthrough process has been sparked by Bitcoin, he informed X followers on April 1.
“The first step is Weekly Close above the Range High. And if, before moving higher, $BTC must successfully retest the RH as new support, then that would be the second stage to completely verifying the breakout.
The two distinct boundaries that define the low-timeframe trend, according to Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading company MNTrading, are $67,000 and $71,700.
He said, “If either of the two occurs, direction is most likely chosen.”
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One highlight of the next U.S. macro week is a new appearance by Fed Chair Powell.
Powell, along with a number of other top Fed officials, will make prepared statements on April 3.
Risk assets are still positive about long-term economic policy, and as 2024 draws closer, interest rate reduction are all but certain.
Powell declared last week that the Fed would adopt a more measured approach when it came to timing reduction and that even the most recent “hot” inflation figures shouldn’t be used as justification for an unduly hawkish attitude to the economy.
The primary focus of this week’s data, however, is the nonfarm payrolls release, which is scheduled for April 5 and lately caused volatility in the price of bitcoin.
US jobless statistics is anticipated on Friday. The financial analyst Tedtalksmacro added, “And just like previous US data points / FOMC… an opportunity to pick up some cheap tokens could be ahead,” as part of an X post about the upcoming week.
As of right now, the market and the Fed are pricing in three rate cuts for the end of the year. Similar to inflation statistics, any notable shortfall in employment data will cause markets to move.
“Weak” job numbers, according to Tedtalksmacro, would increase the likelihood of an early rate decrease and strengthen risk-asset prices.
As per The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, the official start of the second quarter is all about the jobs statistics and Fed speakers.
As Bitcoin continues to soar to new heights in the charts, long-term holders are making quick profits.
On-chain data indicates that what was first a trickle is now picking up speed; Bitcoin’s “diamond hands” are no longer idle.
The analytics company Glassnode disclosed a new peak in realised earnings in the most recent edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain.” These are coins from the two investor cohorts that are transferring on-chain: long-term holdings (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs).
STHs, which represent the more speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum, are organisations that have held coins for fewer than 155 days. On the other hand, LTHs are more adamant about hodling Bitcoin.
Profit-taking surged last month as BTC/USD reached record highs of $73,700, peaking at over $2.6 billion daily. According to Glassnode, LTHs accounted for 40% of this.
Since then, things have altered, with a notable decrease in overall profit-taking; yet, LTHs continue to account for a sizable portion of realised profits.
As of March 31, they were little over $1 billion in total, with LTHs making up about half of the total.
Glassnode stated in its newsletter that “from this, analysts can start to consider LTHs as an increasingly important cohort when assessing the magnitude of sell-side supply pressure moving forwards.”
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Additionally, Glassnode disclosed what it terms a “remarkable similarity” between the price movement of Bitcoin right now and its earlier bull market in 2021.
When the results of this year are compared to those of prior cycles, the 2011 – 2013 cycle stands out as an obvious anomaly.
This, in turn, casts doubt on the idea that this year’s BTC price trend has been brought about by institutional interest.
“The Week On-Chain” described a cycle comparison chart and said, “If we index price performance (black) since the April 2021 ATH (where we argue bear market sentiment set in), we can see a remarkable similarity to the prior cycle (blue).”
“The market is in almost the exact same position as it was in December 2020 in relation to the 2018 – 21 cycle, both in terms of duration and distance from the April 2021 peak.”
Bitcoin experienced a “launchpad” moment in December 2020, when it surged from its previous all-time highs to enter price discovery following a two-week period of retesting.
However, this year is the first that an all-time high has occurred right before a block subsidy halving.
According to research, the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market is anticipating a chance at price discovery across marketplaces.
According to the most recent readings of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, players in the Bitcoin and altcoin markets are once again exhibiting “extreme greed.”
This has occurred without a noticeable increase in price, indicating that traders may grow more irrational if the bull market produces rapid gains.
Fear and Greed have continued to hover above the peaks reached in 2021, but they still have potential to rise before reaching levels associated with cross-market price corrections.
Research firm Santiment suggested that the reason behind market optimism last week could be attributed to a broader belief in riskier investments.
“Trading cryptocurrency typically involves the hope that assets like Bitcoin and others carve out their own market performance path, independent of stocks or other industries,” the post stated on X.
Nevertheless, the general consensus has been that $BTC and altcoins will be lifted from profit distributions from these other sectors due to the strong #AllTimeHigh levels from the #SP500 and gold.
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